Friday, August 1, 2008

it's the economy stupid remix 2008

The phrase was popularized by Clinton's campaign back in 1992. The most recent Democrat to take the White House (though some speculate that both Gore and Kerry were robbed), it seems that the economy is up to its tricks again.

A Reuters piece by Alister Bull notes the studies of economists who use economic conditions to predict the winner of the presidential election.
Three separate studies showed the Democratic presidential hopeful winning between 52 and 55 percent of the popular vote on November 4, based on current gloomy economic estimates.

Any further darkening in the economic outlook -- many analysts think things will get worse between now and November -- would reinforce that election outcome.

These methods have been successful -- when applied (even retroactively) they "correctly predicted the winner of almost all post-war U.S. presidential elections."

I would like to know for which elections the model failed. Vietnam era? Kennedy? Daddy Bush? Gore? Bush? either time? Was there a pressing matter that shaped the outcome? Could Iraq or Obama's ethnic/racial heritage be that issue this time?

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